The Analyser - Round 24 Carlton vs St Kilda

The Analyser – Round 24 Carlton vs St Kilda

On a mild Saturday night at the MCG, Carlton ran into a St Kilda side looking to secure a home final against the Sydney Swans. A loss for the Saints would mean a trip north to play the Swans at either ANZ Stadium or the SCG.

Despite being behind for most of the first 3 quarters, the Saints got the job done in the end running out comfortable 20 point winners against the tiring Blues. That result secured the Saints the all important home final against the Swans at Etihad this Saturday night.

This week’s edition of The Analyser will examine some performances of some underrated Saints players, the brilliance of St Kilda’s defence and much more.

RAPHAEL CLARKE
The whipping-boy of the Saints fans had one of his finest games and continued his consistent form since being dropped mid-year.

Clarke amassed 21 disposals including 13 kicks in arguably a best on ground performance full of rebound and courageous acts. He also had a game-high 10 possessions in the 3rd quarter as the Saints staged their fight back.

One particular passage of play involved Clarke receiving a “corky” and only seconds later recovering to fly at a contest and take a contested mark.

Having a confident Clarke linking and running out of defence is crucial to the Saints chances in finals. His versatility in being able to play on tall and small forwards is also a major positive.

He also has a fairly good record in finals matches. Could he be the man Ross turns to shut down Adam Goodes? It’s unlikely but I believe a confident Raph is capable of getting the job done.

NICK RIEWOLDT
The captain could not back up his performance of last week and struggled to only 9 possessions. He could only manage one shot on goal for the game which was a snap that hit the post.

Riewoldt’s meagre output can be attributed to a few reasons. He is obviously struggling with injury and despite trying his guts out, can’t completely shake a defender often unless the delivery is quality. For most of the night, the delivery was poor and when the ball was kicked to Nick, he had to compete against Lachie Henderson as well as a zoning Blues defender.

In saying that, Henderson is a fast improving defender and did a great job in several one-on-one contests and was the major reason why Riewoldt had such a poor night.

Even after last week’s performance against the Roos, people again have written off Riewoldt after a bad game against the Blues. All I know is that he will be working as hard as he can for the team and that he does have the potential to be a matchwinner come finals time

DELIVERY INSIDE 50
While watching the replay, there were 3 clear occasions where there was poor delivery inside our forward 50m arc. Each time the ball was delivered long to a contest at disadvantage when a free Saints player was available to be hit-up.

I understand that football is a high pressure game but these are the kind of moments that can make or break a game.

There was a particular instance where Goddard streamed through the middle and kicked it to Riewoldt, who had three Blues defenders hanging off him and they easily cleared the ball away. Freezing the replay while the ball was travelling to Riewoldt showed Justin Koschitzke leading up the corridor 40m out from goal with Jeremy Laidler at least 15m behind him.

With our captain obviously injured and struggling, our midfielders have to lower their eyes and hit other targets presenting inside 50. This obviously creates scoring opportunities but in turn takes a bit of pressure off Riewoldt and may mean the next contest won’t involve several members of the opposition zoning off on him.

BETTS, GARLETT AND WALKER
What a performance by the Saints defence to keep Eddie Betts, Jeff Garlett and Andrew Walker all goalless. In fact between the three players, they only recorded two scoring shots for the game.

This is an extraordinary result because these are Carlton’s three highest goalkickers who have all kicked 40+ goals so far this season. Their average goals a game before the Saints game was 2.4 (Walker), 2.1 (Betts) and 2 (Garlett). This means that the Saints defenders removed 6 goals from the average Carlton final score and this was the major factor in winning the game.

I’ve read a fair bit of criticism of Jason Gram’s performance on Saturday night but he was part of a rotation of unheralded defenders including Geary and Clarke who spent time on Carlton’s three most dangerous forwards and kept them all goalless.

The Saints choked Eddie Betts to the point that in the 10 disposals he gathered only 1 was an uncontested possession. That’s an extraordinary statistic particular when the Blues had 46 inside 50’s and Betts spent 87% of time on ground. It showed how clever the Saints defenders were to deny Betts space and how he was put under pressure at almost every instance.

For all those calling for Gram’s omission, this is the second week in a row that he has helped completely quell some dangerous opposition forwards. He may not be the toughest defender and he may not produce the same run out of the backline like in 2009, but if he is shutting down players like Lindsay Thomas, Betts and Garlett, I’m definitely not complaining and looking for him to continue the role in finals.

MICHAEL GARDINER
The veteran Saints ruckman played his first senior game since last year’s Grand Final replay after having a string of chronic injuries.

I expected him to win his fair share of hitouts but not have much impact around the ground. The reality was the complete opposite.

Gardiner struggled in the ruck contests only recording 4 hitouts whilst he had a decent impact around the ground in gathering 10 possessions. He was substituted off early in the third quarter and spent 34% of the match on the ground.

Was this performance enough to convince Ross that Gardiner can limit Mumford’s influence? I don’t know.

Maybe a strategy of using both McEvoy and Gardiner to tire out Mumford could work. If they can break Mumford, then a runner can come on for Gardiner in the second half and McEvoy can ruck out the game.

ADAM SCHNEIDER
Schneider proved he is definitely St Kilda’s most creative and influential player in the forward half with another great performance.

His numbers weren’t prolific in recording 21 possessions but his 12 kicks resulted in seven inside 50’s and two goals as he created havoc across the Saints half forward line.

His creativity when he has possession of the football is second to none. At one stage during the third quarter, he was in heavy traffic in the centre square and with excellent peripheral vision, squeezed a kick laterally to Sam Gilbert, who kicked a crucial goal.

The more times Adam Schneider has the ball in his hands in the attacking half, the more dangerous the Saints look going inside 50.

BRETT PEAKE
Whilst he didn’t have much scoreboard impact, Peake proved he has come of age this year with an underrated performance.

Peake only had 22 possessions but had an equal team high of 10 contested disposals. This is great signs from a player who has been labelled “soft” and a “front runner”.

Peake also had a team high 23 pressure acts and collected 4 clearances as his transformation from complete outside runner to tough wingman continues.

He deserves full credit for this turnaround as many St Kilda supporters including myself, had written him off being a key senior player in this year’s finals series after a poor start to the season.

LOOKING TOWARD THE SWANS GAME
After beating the Saints despite woeful inaccuracy only a few weeks ago, the Swans have every right to be confident going into this game. I think it will be an advantage for the Saints playing the game at Etihad but the Swans adapt well to playing on smaller venues.

There is no second chance for either side and you can expect a four quarter battle to the death, with a warrior emerging at the end primed for a deep finals campaign.

At the selection table, the Saints have a few issues on whom to play in the cut-throat final. David Armitage missed the Blues game through suspension and after playing every other game this year, would expect to be rushed back into the side.

However, the selection of Michael Gardiner has thrown a spanner in the works as it looks likely that he will be used in tandem with McEvoy to quell the in-form Mumford. Which asks the question; is David Armitage in the best 22 and if so, who comes out for him?

I really struggle to find candidates for omission but the players whose spots will be discussed at the selection committee are Gardiner, Armitage, Geary, Polo, Blake and possibly McEvoy.

The only players that could possibly be included in the side are Armitage, Gamble and Baker. I would feel certain in saying that it’s pretty likely Armitage will be the one to come in.

THE FINAL WORD
Any questions, opinions, comments can be directed underneath this piece, to @kieran_francis or kewfrancis@gmail.com.

All feedback and improvement suggestions are welcome.
The Saints are back in finals, on a stage that they have thrived on over the past couple of years. It is going to be an epic battle with the Swans and if the Saints can get over the line, than another game of football awaits and the season is still alive.