Games between St Kilda and Sydney are always epic struggles. This Saturday night at Etihad Stadium will not deviate from tradition. The winner will walk away with season intact and be labelled a finals wildcard. The loser will only have “Mad Monday” to look forward to.
LAST TIME THEY MET
Only a little over 2 weeks ago, the Saints travelled north to play the Swans on a terrible surface at ANZ Stadium. A bout of gastro struck the St Kilda team in the lead-up to the game and this forced the late withdrawals of Zac Dawson and Justin Koschitzke.
After Rhyce Shaw posted the first major for the Swans, the Saints responded with the next three goals and went into quarter time with a 10-point lead. This was aided by some woeful kicking for goal by the Swans.
The Swans dominated the second quarter but terrible inaccuracy in front of goal (2.7) meant that the Saints (3.1) matched them and retained their 10 point lead at the main break.
Sydney’s inaccuracy did not improve in their third quarter. Despite again dominating the quarter, the Swans kicked 3.5 to the Saints 3.2 and only reduced the Saints lead to 7 points at three quarter time.
With the Swans being dominant there was a sense of inevitability that the Saints were going to run over. This came true early in the last quarter with an Adam Goodes- inspired Swans kicking the first 3 goals of the quarter and running away comfortable 15 point winners despite kicking an amazing 23 behinds for the match.
Sydney Swans 1.5 3.12 6.17 10.23 (83)
St Kilda 3.3 6.4 9.6 10.8 (68)
GOALS
Sydney Swans: Shaw, McVeigh, Hannebery, O'Keefe, White, Reid, Bolton, Spangher, Goodes, Mumford.
St Kilda: Riewoldt, Armitage 2, Goddard, Gilbert, Ray, Lynch, Milne, Polo
BEST
Sydney Swans: Richards, Shaw, Mumford, Goodes, Hannebery, McVeigh
St Kilda: Dempster, Fisher, Dal Santo, Goddard, Armitage
INJURIES
Sydney Swans: Johnson (foot)
St Kilda: Dempster (head), Blake (leg). Koschitzke (gastro) and Dawson (gastro), replaced in the selected side by Baker and Lynch.
Reports: Dean Polo (St Kilda) reported in the last quarter for tripping Sydney Swans player Adam Goodes
Umpires: Farmer, Chamberlain, Ryan
Official crowd: 25,025 at ANZ Stadium, Sydney.
RECENT FORM
After the slip-up against the Swans, the Saints comfortably disposed of North Melbourne by 65 points in Round 23’s match of the round. This secured the Saints their spot in finals. In Round 24, the Saints needed to beat Carlton to secure a home final against the Swans. Despite being behind until close to the three quarter time, the Saints got the job done and saluted with a 20 point win.
The Swans followed up their victory over St Kilda with an extraordinary performance down at Skilled Stadium. The Cats had won 29 in a row at their home ground and no one gave the Swans a chance at victory. With a gutsy, emotion-filled performance, the Swans got home by 13 points in a result that had the footy world talking. In Round 24, the Swans needed to beat Brisbane to keep their home final chances alive. They responded with a comfortable 52 point win. However a St Kilda win over Carlton denied the Swans a home final.
KEY MATCH UPS
Ben McEvoy vs Shane Mumford – Michael Gardiner was left out of the St Kilda side despite Mumford towelling up McEvoy in their last battle only 2 weeks ago. It has been rumoured that McEvoy was ill in the lead-up to the game last time and this contributed to his poor performance against the in-form Swans ruckman. If McEvoy can break even with or beat Mumford than the Saints will probably win this game. This match-up looms as the potential match-defining battle.
Dean Polo vs Josh Kennedy – The Swans tough-nut had an amazing 12 clearances when the two sides met recently and this was helped by the dominance of Mumford. I expect the Saints to treat Kennedy the same way they treated Chris Judd around the stoppages and emphasise a need to reduce his impact in contested situations. Dean Polo should spend time on Kennedy but there could also be a rotation of players including Leigh Montagna, Farren Ray and Jack Steven who could be asked to deny Kennedy getting the first possession at stoppages.
Ted Richards vs Nick Riewoldt – In their last battle, Richards was deemed to be the Swans best player by dominating Riewoldt in their one-on-one contests. Since then, Richards has also claimed the scalp of James Podsiadly and is arguably in career best form. Riewoldt is coming off a lean game against Carlton and would be mindful of the job that Richards did on him last time. Can Riewoldt overcome his injury problems to have an impact? Or will Richards continue his great form?
Nick Smith vs Stephen Milne – Smith is one of the most underrated small defenders in the league and comfortably beat Milne in their last meeting. Whilst gathering 16 touches of his own, Smith limited Milne to 13 disposals and a goal. A similar performance by Smith would significantly limit the Saints potential scoring options. However, Milne has a great record at Etihad Stadium and will be looking to continue the form that has brought him All-Australian squad recognition.
David Armitage vs Rhyce Shaw – The former Collingwood defender carved up the Saints a few weeks ago in collecting 29 touches, 5 inside 50’s, 9 rebound 50’s, 10 running bounces and a goal. You would expect Ross to try and limit his output because a similar performance could be match-winning. Armitage seems like the ideal player to keep Shaw in check and accountable. Adam Schneider and Brett Peake could also be used in this role.
Kieran Jack vs Nick Dal Santo – You would expect the Swans number one tagger to get first crack at the Saints’ premier midfielder. Dal Santo has been a consistent clearance winner for the Saints and his foot-skills are exceptional when given the time. If Jack cannot limit Dal Santo then the Swans have Ben McGlynn who can also fill the role.
Sam Fisher vs Adam Goodes – The Swans champion gave the Saints the slip in Round 22 with a match-winning performance in the last quarter. He is kind of player who is capable of single-handedly dragging his side to victory in a close game. I’d expect Sam Fisher to get the first crack at shutting down Goodes but the Saints also have quality tagger Sean Dempster waiting in the wings to take the role.
THE BURNING QUESTIONS
Can Ben McEvoy overturn the comprehensive beating that he received at the hands of Shane Mumford only 2 weeks ago? McEvoy has matched or beaten a number of quality ruckman this year. Todd Goldstein and Darren Jolly are two that come to mind. He will remember that Mumford smashed him last time and will know what to expect. He needs to be strong around the ruck contest and be aware of Mumford drifting forward.
Lyon obviously has huge faith in McEvoy in not selecting Gardiner and he will feel that his faith can be repaid. If McEvoy can break even with Mumford than the Saints will feel pretty confident of winning the midfield battle.
Will Nick Riewoldt be able to have an influence on the game despite the injuries hampering his body? Riewoldt is a proven champion and if fully fit would definitely have a massive say on the result of the game. Because of his dodgy knee, the output from the Saints captain will depend greatly on the quality of delivery to him inside 50.
Sydney full-back Ted Richards has been in some great form of late and if he gets on top of Riewoldt early in the match then that could have a significant say in the result.
A 3-4 goal performance from Riewoldt would be a great result and significantly increase St Kilda’s chances of winning the game.
Is the game going to be a low-scoring battle consisting of stoppages and tempo footy? I think this is almost a certainty. The two styles of play of the opposing teams are very similar and when the two sides meet, it’s always a low-scoring battle.
This is why the clearance battle is so important to the result. Both teams will seek to shut-down the contest at will and the all important clearances will translate to more inside 50 entries.
I hope both sets of supporters are ready for an unattractive stop-start game that will culminate in an exciting finale where the strongest side will just prevail.
THE FINAL WORD
This is a do-or-die final featuring two sides that never give up and always fight to the final siren. What more can supporters ask for?
The Saints will be confident of getting a win at a ground that they play their best football at. They haven’t lost a game at Etihad Stadium on a Saturday night since 2003 and will feel as if they have the edge.
On the other hand, Sydney will know they can beat anyone after their recent stunning victory away at Geelong. Having beaten the Saints only a few weeks ago will also give them significant confidence.
I’m expecting a physical battle that will require both sides to draw on their reserves of experience. The Saints have unfinished business from the past two seasons and that coupled with the home ground advantage will mean they will come home with the chocolates.
St Kilda by 9 points.
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