The Analyser - Round 21 St Kilda vs Collingwood

The Analyser – Round 21 St Kilda vs Collingwood

For the third week out of four, the Saints were under lights on Friday night as they squared up to a rampant Collingwood outfit. The match would provide a gauge on how close the Saints are to the competition powerhouses.

After being troubled by the Saints for most of the first half, the Pies put on the afterburners in the latter stages of the second quarter and the third quarter. A few St Kilda goals late in the last quarter restricted their loss to a respectable 19 points.

This week’s edition of The Analyser will examine the Saints disposal efficiency, the use of the sub rule, why we can beat the Pies and much more.

DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY
There was a clear gulf in execution of foot skills between the Saints and Pies. The effectiveness of the Pies press means that their opposition can’t afford to turn the ball over when coming out of defence. It restricts the quality of the forward 50 entries and Collingwood are one of the best teams at punishing turnovers with goals.

The Saints had several culprits who regularly missed targets when coming out of defence. Jason Gram and Sam Gilbert were the worst culprits.

Gilbert scrubbed a number of kicks out of defence and his five inside 50 entries were all of poor quality.

Gram is back to his attacking best off the half-back flank. The problem is that he is missing too many targets when the Saints going forward. The chip-kick that went over Milne’s head in the centre of the ground is a clear example.

Here is a list of notable Saints players’ disposal efficiency:
Sam Gilbert (20 disposals) 70% efficiency
Jason Gram (24 disposals) 71%
Sean Dempster (17 disposals) 53%
Jack Steven (22 disposals) 55%
Nick Dal Santo (28 disposals) 61%
Dean Polo (15 disposals) 54%

This is definitely a statistic that the Saints need to improve going into a probable finals series. It may be easy to defeat teams like Gold Coast and Fremantle with low disposal efficiency but teams like Collingwood, Geelong and Hawthorn will cut you up if you continually turn the ball over.

BEN MCEVOY
In my opinion, this was Ben McEvoy’s best game for St Kilda and gets me excited for how good he can actually be.

McEvoy went head-to-head with Pies premiership ruckman Darren Jolly and arguably just emerged with the points.

The Saints big man matched Jolly for hitouts (29), had one more disposal (16) and one more mark (7). These figures aren’t huge but the fact that they were accumulated against such a quality ruckman makes me really excited.

Imagine how good Ben is going to be with another 50 games underneath his belt. He has another big test this week as he squares up against a quality ruckman in Shane Mumford.

DAVID ARMITAGE
The performance of David Armitage was simply not good enough. I know he may be playing out of his best position, but 4 possessions as a half-forward in a side with 54 inside 50’s is not good enough. He should be doing better.

Interestingly, Armitage was substituted off at three quarter time for utility Jason Blake. Despite the fact there was roughly 75% available playing time for David, he only spent 51% of time on ground. This equates to nearly a whole quarter being spent on the bench before being substituted.

This suggests to me that either he picked up an injury early in the game or he was still affected by the concussion injury that was inflicted upon him last week.

This could explain the poor performance. However brings up the contentious issue of St Kilda’s substitute selection.

SUBSTITUTE – JASON BLAKE
The selection of Jason Blake as the substitute baffled me on all accords. He played a terrific game last week against Fremantle and I guess Ross was rewarding him for his form.

In my opinion, Ross either had to drop Blake or leave Dawson out. If he can’t squeeze another tall defender into the current style of play, then one should be left out and a running player should be used as substitute.

What value would Blake have had if he came on in the last quarter in a close game? He is a great servant to the club but he is unlikely to provide run or be a matchwinner.

With the fact that David Armitage was struggling, possibly with an injury, Ross couldn’t afford to bring Blake on when the game was there to be won as it would be sacrificing a running player for a key position player. This would have upset team balance.

A great example of the value of a running player as sub was Geary’s performance from last week. Also Alan Didak picked up 12 disposals in the short time he was on the ground after the Pies activated him as a replacement.

Looking at all the substitutes selected in teams playing in Round 21, Jason Blake was the only true key position player. Maybe Ross had a theory as to why he selected Blake but I think a running player as sub would have much more impact.

LEON DAVIS/BEN JOHNSON
While I thought Ross Lyon got all the midfield match-ups right, the rebound of Davis and Johnson from the backline was match-defining. Both players continually got uncontested possessions and took on the Saints as they drove their team forward.

Davis was electrifying in gathering a career high 36 disposals including 30 kicks and 2 goals. The important stat was that 28 of his possessions were uncontested.

Johnson was equally important finishing just shy of his career best disposal tally (34) with 32 possessions. 29 of these possessions were uncontested.

These players were constantly used by their Magpie counterparts to start the transition from defence to attack. They took the game on and generally delivered efficiently to players further up the field.

It’s really important to limit this type of players’ impact and have their direct opponents exploit their lack of accountability.

Ross will have an opportunity to quell an inform running half back in Chris Yarran when the Saints play them in Round 24.

WHY WE CAN BEAT THE PIES – KEY STATISTICS
There were several statistics evident at the end of the game that proved the Saints aren’t too far away from the Pies.
The Saints won the midfield battle in eclipsing the Pies in clearances (39-35), hitouts (45-33), tackles (76-62). This resulted in the Saints having more inside 50’s (54-48) and scoring shots (20-19).

Having all these key statistics in your favour usually means a win but there were a couple of factors why it didn’t work out this way.

Obviously the disposal efficiency was the main issue but there were also a number of crucial plays that went in the Pies favour. Some crucial plays I recall are:
- Dawson’s illegal shepherd on Krakouer to gift the Pies a goal at the start of the second half

- The missed shots for goal including Goddard’s poster just before three quarter time.

- Raph Clarke and Ben McEvoy contesting a 2-on-1 deep in the Magpies forward 50, Clarke took McEvoy out of the contest and went to ground. Wellingham kept his feet and snapped a crucial goal.

- Decision against Brett Peake at start of last quarter when he bumped Thomas and took the mark inside 50.

- Dane Swan’s lucky bounce snap goal in the last quarter.

- Leigh Brown’s tumble punt inside 50 that luckily landed in Dayne Beams arms 20m out directly in front.

All these moments were either lucky or completely preventable by the Saints.

The common mantra among the media is that Pies had another gear to step up to and that’s why the win was so comfortable.

I firmly believe that our boys have another gear to step up into. Simply being more efficient with the football will give us a chance at beating the Pies, if we meet them again. Luck won’t go astray either.

LOOKING TOWARD THE SYDNEY GAME
Battles between the Saints and Swans over the past couple of years have traditionally been dour, tight affairs. The Swans will be keen to bounce back after a strange month where they lost to Fremantle at home, thrashed the Bulldogs, choked against Essendon and were soundly beaten by Richmond at the MCG.

Whether there will be any changes for the Saints this week shall be a mystery left until selection on Thursday night.

Alastair Smith, Tom Lynch and Nick Heyne were all in the best players in Sandringham’s 2 point loss against Box Hill. Ryan Gamble also chipped in with 2 goals.

I have a feeling that David Armitage is injured and if that’s the case, Gamble or Lynch will be certain replacements. Ross may also choose to select Gamble for team structure purposes as the forward line struggled against the Pies.

If any players were omitted, I could only see it being Jason Blake, Jarryn Geary or possibly Dean Polo.

THE FINAL WORD
Any questions, opinions, comments can be directed underneath this piece, to @kieran_francis or kewfrancis@gmail.com.

All feedback and improvement suggestions are welcome.

It’s really important that the Saints bounce back from the loss to Collingwood and continue their charge toward a finals appearance. The Swans have had some vulnerable form over the past month but the Saints mustn’t take this game lightly and entrench themselves in 6th position and all but guarantee a home final.