Preview- Round 22 Sydney vs St Kilda

PREVIEW – ROUND 22 SYDNEY VS ST KILDA
On Sunday afternoon, the Saints travel north to play Sydney in a game that will cement a finals spot for the winner. The game will be played at ANZ Stadium, the Swans second home ground.

LAST TIME THEY MET
Incredibly, the Saints and Swans haven’t played each other for 17 months. The last meeting was in Round 1 last year, also at ANZ Stadium.

Aided by some straight kicking (5.0), the Saints jumped out to a 9 point lead at quarter time. The Saints did well to lead as the Swans kicked the first 2 goals of the game.

At halftime, the Saints held a 7 point lead and their rare accuracy continued with 9 goals straight at the long break.

The third quarter was a dour affair with neither team able to gain an advantage until the final few minutes. In this time, the Saints kicked two quick goals to lead by 20 points at three quarter time.

The Swans kicked the first 3 goals of the last quarter to rein in the margin to only 2 points with 12 minutes to go. However the Saints held firm, kicking the next 2 goals and holding on to record a tight 8 point win.

Nick Riewoldt was best on ground with 4 goals and 22 possessions. Other Saints to perform well were Brendon Goddard (23 disposals), Leigh Montagna (26 disposals) and Sam Gilbert (21 disposals).

For the Swans, Goodes was their best with 3 goals and 16 possessions whilst Ryan O’Keefe (33 disposals) and Jarrad McVeigh (29 disposals) also put in solid contributions.

Sydney Swans 3.3 7.5 9.8 13.10 (88)
St Kilda 5.0 9.0 13.4 15.6 (96)

GOALS
Sydney Swans: Goodes 3, Mattner 2, O’Keefe, Malceski, Kirk, Bradshaw, White, Jack, McVeigh, Moore
St Kilda: Riewoldt 4, Koschitzke 2, Gram 2, Dal Santo, Milne, Schneider, Geary, Peake, McQualter, Goddard
BEST
Sydney Swans: Goodes, McVeigh, O’Keefe, Seaby, Shaw, Malceski
St Kilda: Riewoldt, Gram, Montagna, Gilbert, Dal Santo, McQualter

Umpires: Donlon, McBurney, Grun

Official crowd: 31,330

RECENT FORM
The Swans have been struggling for form of late. In their past 4 games they have only recorded one win. In this time they have lost to Fremantle (SCG), Essendon (Etihad) and Richmond (MCG). Their solitary win was a comfortable 39 point win against the Bulldogs at the SCG in Round 18.

St Kilda had maintained a winning streak stretching to six until the 19 point loss against Collingwood last week. The Saints streak of 6 wins included wins against North Melbourne (9 points), Port Adelaide (56), West Coast (21), Adelaide (103), Gold Coast (20) and Fremantle (41).

KEY MATCH-UPS
Sam Fisher vs Adam Goodes – Goodes is the barometer of the Sydney Swans side. When he is playing well, the Swans rarely lose. He has the ability to be damaging in the midfield whilst becoming a focal point when resting up forward. Fisher has shown he is well capable of shutting down tall midfielders with the job he did on Matthew Pavlich in both games against Fremantle this year. He also can be damaging in his own right if left alone when the Saints are attacking.

Ben McEvoy vs Shane Mumford – When the Saints play the Swans, the game is traditionally a midfield struggle with a high regularity of stoppages. This means the importance of the ruck battle is even higher. Mumford is a strong ruckman who competes ferociously at ground level after the ball has come to ground. McEvoy is fast coming of age as an elite AFL ruckman and eclipsing Darren Jolly last week proved this. Whoever gives their midfield first use of the ball will considerably help their team gain the ascendency in the midfield battle.

Sean Dempster vs Ryan O’Keefe – Dempster usually takes the oppositions’ most damaging player who doesn’t regularly start in the centre square. Following this theory, I believe he will be matched up against Ryan O’Keefe. In matches against the Saints over the past few years, O’Keefe has been a damaging player who prolifically wins the footy and kicks goals. However, he has shown over the past couple of seasons that he is susceptible to a hard tag.

Nick Smith vs Stephen Milne - Milne has been the Saints most in-form forward over the past 2 months and it’s widely expected that Smith will get first crack. The St Kilda goal sneak was well beaten by Harry O’Brien last week and will be looking to have an impact on the game. The Swans will regard Smith’s job as hugely important because shutting down Milne will greatly reduce the Saints goal sources.

Jason Gram vs Ben McGlynn – The Swans second highest goalkicker, behind Adam Goodes, is McGlynn with 27 goals. This shows the danger that he can pose inside the forward 50. Gram has shown that he can do the job shutting down dangerous, goal kicking forwards when he restricted Nat Fyfe in Round 21. His ability to damage the opposition coming out of defence means that McGlynn will have to be accountable when the Saints are attacking.

Zac Dawson vs Sam Reid – The young Swans key tall has been extremely impressive over the past couple of months as he matures into a forward role. His ability to jump and take contested marks will be a big worry for the Saints defence. This approach of leaping for marks is not unlike Adelaide forward Kurt Tippett, who has usually had the better of Zac Dawson. Whilst Reid hasn’t had enough a massive impact on the scoreboard, he has been threatening to rip a game open and Dawson must make sure it isn’t this one.

THE BURNING QUESTIONS
Who will win the midfield battle? Sydney vs St Kilda is never a free-flowing affair with defensive footy being the focus and plenty of stoppages occurring. The team that gets their hands on the football first in the stoppages will have a considerable advantage in getting the four points.

Against the excellent Collingwood midfield, the Saints surprisingly won the honours by having more hitouts, clearances, tackles and inside 50’s. Against an underrated Tigers midfield, the Swans had 10 more clearances but 63 less possessions. Kieran Jack and Josh Kennedy accumulated 15 clearances between them accounting for nearly half the Swans total.

Since the Saints are a high possession team, last week’s statistics bode well as the Tigers managed to have a considerable amount more of the football than the Swans. They will also need to shut down Jack and Kennedy around the stoppages as they will continually give their team first use of the football. Likewise, the Swans will have plenty to worry about with Nick Dal Santo and Jack Steven hovering around the stoppages.

Will the Swans bounce back? Over the past 6 years, the Swans have arguably been the most consistent club in the competition. There have been small patches of bad form but, as a club, they have always bounced back.

After a poor run of form stretching back 5 weeks, the Swans will want to get back in form as finals are approaching and there is no better place to do this than in front your own fans.

Last week’s result against Richmond was an aberration. The Swans have been struggling for form and also haven’t played well at the MCG for a number of years.

The Saints should expect what they always get from the Swans; a tough, close and exciting game.

Can the Saints improve their disposal efficiency? The Saints lost against the Pies last week largely due to their terrible ball use. They will be looking to make a considerable improvement on this as Ross Lyon focused on it during his post-game press conference last week.

Players such as Jason Gram, Raph Clarke and Sam Gilbert have been criticised during the week for turning the ball over too much when rebounding. It will be interesting to see how they respond.

It is also a possibility that Lyon will look to the VFL and select Tom Lynch to play across half-back. His foot skills have been his major asset in the VFL but the question would be whether his skills would hold up in the high pressure AFL environment.

THE FINAL WORD

The Saints will be looking to continue their charge toward finishing 6th and being rewarded with a home final. The struggling Swans will be keen to regain form and cement a finals spot with a tough game against Geelong at Skilled Stadium next week.

Don’t expect a free-flowing, exciting game with the Saints running away as big victors. It will be a dour arm-wrestle with the result not being decided until deep in the last quarter.

It should be a good test of the Saints ability to get the job done on the road. I believe the Saints, playing their high possession style, will emerge victors after an epic battle.

St Kilda by 7 points