Preview - Round 21 St Kilda vs Collingwood

PREVIEW – ROUND 21 ST KILDA VS COLLINGWOOD

In front of 50,000+ fans at Etihad Stadium on Friday night, the Saints take on Collingwood in a blockbuster that will leave us knowing where both teams stand at the end of it.

RECENT FORM

The Magpies have only lost once since that fateful day in October, when they denied St Kilda a premiership twice in the space of 7 days. They come into the game after some commanding performances including a 74 point belting of Essendon and a destruction of Port Adelaide to the tune of 138 points.

After a slow start to the season, the Saints have won 6 in a row, including 9 of their past 11. A criticism of the Saints winning streak is that they haven’t faced a top 4 side. However, tough wins over North Melbourne, West Coast and Fremantle have proved that the club is hitting top gear at the right time of year.

LAST TIME THEY MET

The Grand Final rematch was played in Round 11 at the MCG in front of a disappointing crowd of only 62,991.

After an even first quarter, the Saints led by 4 points with only 45 seconds to go in the second quarter. At this point, Travis Cloke marked and kicked a goal from a tight angle to put Collingwood in front. From the resulting centre bounce, the Pies went inside 50 and kicked a goal with only 4 seconds left on the clock. Andrew Krakouer swooped on an unpaid Dean Polo mark and gave the Pies an 8 point lead and momentum going into half time.

The Pies kicked 12 goals to 2 in the second half and ran out convincing 57 point winners. Collingwood’s prime movers Dane Swan (4 goals), Scott Pendelbury (32 disposals) and Dale Thomas (31 disposals) all had a profound impact on the result. For the Saints, only Nick Dal Santo (32 disposals) and Ben McEvoy (22 disposals, 30 hitouts) could hold their heads up high.

Collingwood 2.4 6.5 11.9 16.12 (108)
St Kilda 2.1 5.3 6.7 7.9 (51)
GOALS
Collingwood: Swan 4, Cloke 3, Dawes 2, Wellingham 2, Krakouer 2, Brown, Davis, McCarthy
St Kilda: Goddard, Peake, Milne, Steven, Jones, Armitage, Gilbert

BEST
Collingwood: Pendlebury, Cloke, Davis, Thomas, Shaw, Swan
St Kilda: Dal Santo, McEvoy, Gwilt, Gilbert, Steven

KEY MATCH-UPS

Clinton Jones vs Dale Thomas – Jones kept Thomas to only 12 possessions in the first half of the Round 11 clash. Ross Lyon relinquished the tag in the second half and Thomas ran riot with 19 disposals. We can rest assure the same thing won’t happen on Friday night. Jones was at his best against Fremantle, completely cutting Stephen Hill out of the game. Thomas is a similar player to Hill in that his acceleration, once in possession of the ball, is quite extraordinary. It will be a good battle to see how much Jones can negate Thomas’ influence.

Sean Dempster/Farren Ray vs Dane Swan – Swan is in scintillating form of late accumulating a total of 82 possessions in his last two games against Essendon and Port Adelaide. Ray has had success in negating Swan during the Grand Finals and will take Swan when he is running through the midfield. Because of the danger that Swan (24 goals) has posed inside 50 this season, Dempster will go to him at forward 50 stoppages and when he rests up forward. Limiting Swan’s disposal efficiency and scoreboard impact will significantly help the Saints win the midfield battle. Dean Polo will also be used at times to stifle Swan at stoppages.

Jason Blake vs Travis Cloke – Blake has earnt first crack at Cloke after a superb performance on Keplar Bradley last week. He wasn’t available for selection in Round 11 when Cloke kicked 3 goals and took 11 marks. His big body is the reason why he will be initially preferred to Zac Dawson. With the possibility that Cam Wood will still be in the side, Dawson can go to either Leigh Brown or Darren Jolly when he is resting forward. Cloke is arguably the best contested mark in the competition and whoever gets the job will be in for a physical battle.

Brett Peake vs Nick Maxwell – The Saints are well aware of the threat that Maxwell poses when left by himself behind the ball. I expect Ross Lyon to try and exploit Maxwell’s tendency to play loose by having Peake buzzing around in his areas to make him accountable. Peake occupying Maxwell across the Saints half forward line should drag him away from Nick Riewoldt and let the St Kilda captain compete 1-on-1 with his opponent. Peake has been St Kilda’s most damaging player across wing and half forward over the past few weeks and would be best equipped to fulfil this role. Adam Schneider and David Armitage could also do the job if required.

Stephen Milne vs Harry O’Brien – Milne only needs one more goal to break Matthew Lloyd’s record of 299 goals at Etihad Stadium. You can be sure that he would love to do it against Collingwood. He will have his work cut out in trying to get the record against O’Brien, who has definitely had the better of the encounters over the past couple of years. The Saints goal sneak has been in great form in the past 6 matches averaging 4 goals a game. For the Saints to win, you would expect Milne to chip in with a few goals.

THE FINAL WORD

There is two things that need to be done for a team to beat Collingwood. First, the opposition need to be able to get through their clinical forward press. Second, if an error is made when attacking the forward press, to not let the turnover result in scoreboard pressure. I think Ross Lyon has been building the team over the past few weeks to achieve this goal.

In the past 6 weeks, the Saints have been ranked 1st in the competition for short kicks, uncontested possessions and uncontested marks. They also have the 2nd highest play-on percentage in the competition during this time. I think this is the way Lyon thinks he can beat the press. By moving the ball quickly and effectively, he hopes to move the press around to allow more forward 50 entries. This means more chances to put the Collingwood defence under pressure, something that they haven’t really had to cope with all season.

Both teams are experts at applying pressure and keeping the ball inside their respective forward 50 arcs. This means that clearances will be hugely important and the duel between Ben McEvoy and Darren Jolly will have a significant impact on the result.

If the Saints can get on top with the clearances and role players such as Jones and Dempster can succeed in their set tasks, well there is no reason why they can’t bring home the four points.

St Kilda by 3 points